10-years-to-save-the-climate is based on flawed forecasting and distracts from real solutions

Is Climate Catastrophe Really 10 Years Away?


VANCOUVER—The increasingly accepted idea that the world has 10-years to avoid catastrophic climate change is overstated because it’s largely based on unreliable models, finds a new essay released today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Despite global greenhouse gas emissions increasing, we’re still the same 10 or so years away from climate catastrophe that we were some twenty years ago when these forecasts first started appearing,” said Kenneth P. Green, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Is Climate Catastrophe Really 10 Years Away?

Over-reaction to and over-reliance on these flawed models results in policy recommendations and decisions

The study explains there is considerable, actual real-world data for the last twenty years that allows for comparisons between what was expected (i.e. forecasted) versus what actually happened. In case after case, the main models being used to forecast the future climate have proven inaccurate and unreliable. The study recognizes that climate models have improved but are still inaccurate, which raises serious concerns about their use.

“Often times people, particularly advocates and the media treat these forward estimates (i.e. forecasts) as if they’re absolutely certain to occur,” explained Green.

The study goes on to explain that the over-reaction to and over-reliance on these flawed models results in policy recommendations and decisions that miss more effective solutions, particularly those related to adaptation to a changing climate. For instance, assessing present day harms from climate change would lead to more spending on protecting coastal infrastructure in areas where sea levels are rising.

“Rather than obsess over dubious 10-year forecasts, incremental, adaptive measures are an alternative option that policy makers should consider in the face of repeated ‘10-year’ windows and failed greenhouse gas emission reduction policies.”

Media Contact:
Kenneth P. Green, Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

To arrange media interviews or for more information, please contact:
Drue MacPherson, Fraser Institute
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

Fraser Institute — Bio and Archives

The Fraser Institute is an independent Canadian public policy research and educational organization with offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal and ties to a global network of 86 think-tanks. Its mission is to measure, study, and communicate the impact of competitive markets and government intervention on the welfare of individuals. To protect the Institute’s independence, it does not accept grants from governments or contracts for research. Visit fraserinstitute.org.

Follow the Fraser Institute on Twitter | Like us on Facebook

Welcome to CFP’s Comment Section!

Dear Canada Free Press Commenters. Due to the onset of trolls working to sabotage and undermine Canada Free Press, we are taking down our Comment Section until we can come up with a better way than what is afforded by Insticator.

As you know, we had our own in-house commenting system; have been on Disqus Twice. Open Web, and most recently Insticator. None have worked out for us.

Searching the ‘Net we have been unable to find any comment platform that would work well for us.

We do not want to close the door on our many loyal commenters, some of whom have been commenting on our columns for years.

Because their voices matter to us, we are now asking all CFP commenters to email their comments directly to [email protected].

Will will then post your comments to our columns, and do so as quickly as we can.

Thank You for your loyalty and readership of Canada Free Press!

Click to see our Commenting Policy

Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.